Change of product direction, good and bad news!

[Scott Robison]

Just now, BruceMcF said:

Tried before in this context as in releasing the FPGA simulation of a retro computer family before the first actual member of that family. Really, that hasn't been done before.



Also releasing them simultaneously hasn't been done before either.



As for releasing the FPGA simulation of a retro system either with or without a turbo mode, both have been tried, both have successes.

Fair enough. Thanks for the thoughtful response.

This goes back to what I've said on the Monster Thread(TM). Everyone has an opinion of what they personally want which is authoritative. Many have an opinion as to whether this is good / bad / indifferent to the X16, but those are not authoritative. It is gut instinct.

I read some posts from people bemoaning how this is going to fragment the ecosystem and their hard work is going to be for nothing. I may not have sufficient imagination, but I do not see this ever being sufficiently successful for anyone to make a living based on their ability to release software for these platforms. I don't think it was never going to sell in a quantity to make that possible. I could be wrong, but based on that belief, I don't see how X8 fragments the community, especially given just how similar the X8 and X16 will be programmatically. Writing a single program that can run on both is not going to be like the difference between VIC-20 and C64, much less PC vs Mac. The program can be written to run on both, or some clever conditional compilation / assembly can be used to build two binaries that target the different platforms.

I feel bad for international fans of the platform who have a much harder time importing and potentially dealing with currency conversion issues. I do not think a $50 X8 is going to be the roadblock that keeps someone from buying an X16. If anything, the X8 builds an ecosystem faster and puts more machines in more hands because people who won't buy a $200 or $300 X16 might likely buy an X8. Some may choose to only target the X8, just as many decided to target the C64 over the superior C128. That didn't stop the C128 from selling 5.7M (or so I've read).

Obviously, today, Xanything isn't going to sell 1M units.

In the end, if people want to try to make a buck selling software, then IMO they should be begging for the X8 to be released, because that's going to build a userbase most quickly at the expected price point.

[BruceMcF]

19 minutes ago, Scott Robison said:

...  I do not think a $50 X8 is going to be the roadblock that keeps someone from buying an X16. If anything, the X8 builds an ecosystem faster and puts more machines in more hands because people who won't buy a $200 or $300 X16 might likely buy an X8. Some may choose to only target the X8, just as many decided to target the C64 over the superior C128. That didn't stop the C128 from selling 5.7M (or so I've read).



Obviously, today, Xanything isn't going to sell 1M units.

This is a point ... an LX8 won't cannibalize CX16c sales to any appreciable extent. Those who want to pay $200-$300 for a complete system in case will still want to do that, even if they have an LX8.

I'm imagining myself here ... since I am in the CX16c market ... with a CX16c case or reasonable facsimile (perhaps third party), a keyboard, my LCD VGA monitor on top, with an LX8 inside, and the CX16c crowdfund page goes live ... I'm there, first day, if I can afford it at the time. Because the LX8 is not really a CX16. Only difference from the pages launching side by side is in this situation, I pick the CX16c without the case option (another reason to launch them simultaneously, by the way).

By contrast, a CX16e might cannibalize CX16c sales a bit ... surely the CX16c case will have mounting options, either from the team or third party, for holding a CX16e inside, and once you have that ... buying the CX16c board might well turn into a plan that never happens for a more substantial chunk of the CX16c market. "Oh, here is an interesting board, should I try it? But first I would have to get a CX16c board ... oh well, maybe not. Let me see if there is an option to run it on my laptop in the simulator."

_______________

I believe people are very price sensitive. If you get the X8 now for under $50, it scratches the itch.  How many people will spend a lot more later for the X16 when the X8 runs most of the software?  



I think the X8 will inevitably cannabalize the X16 market, probably killing the X16's chances.  In the big picture, maybe that's not really a problem anyway?

You really need to define "the itch" here. The "itch" here is to have a real live 8bit computer running a real live 8bit CPU. That's what defines the "willing to spend in excess of $200 on it" segment of the market.

The cannibalization issue are those who have that itch, but rationalize getting the less expensive FPGA simulator while "planning" to get the real one "when they can afford it". If it's an exact simulation, those are the kinds of plans that often keep getting pushed onto the backburner and never really get executed.

But the LX8 is not a real CX16. Every time there is a CX16 application or game that the LX8 will NOT run, and you have to run it on an emulator on a modern laptop, ooh, that aggravates the itch to get a real CX16 once more.

Now, to be sure, you could get a $70 SBC and mini case that would have the grunt to run that CX16 application full speed. And there are people for whom that emulation option will satisfy them. But you can do that now ... I don't think those people who are satisfied with the emulator are in the market for either of the two real CX16's.

 

[Snickers11001001]

One of the neat things about the polls on this forum.   You can click on each response and see the screen names that picked that.   And you can hover over the screen name icons and see when they registered and everything.   Sort of interesting watching the flood of new folks (from facebook groups?   other forums?) and how they're leaning.     

I'm not accusing anyone of anything untoward, make no mistake.  Hell, I'm myself a FNG who just registered in January after lurking for a year or more before that.  Rather, the point I want  to make is that this bears on what someone (Bruce?) was saying about the benefits of getting on with it in terms of the Crowdfund.   There's obviously a lot more interest and awareness of the project than perhaps folks might have assumed....  

Just an observation.   And I tend to think that rolling out the formal Crowdfund might actually be the best measure of market sentiment...  folks voting with their pocket books and all that! 

 

[TomXP411]

2 minutes ago, Snickers11001001 said:

One of the neat things about the polls on this forum.   You can click on each response and see the screen names that picked that.   And you can hover over the screen name icons and see when they registered and everything.   Sort of interesting watching the flood of new folks (from facebook groups?   other forums?) and how they're leaning.     



I'm not accusing anyone of anything untoward, make no mistake.  Hell, I'm myself a FNG who just registered in January after lurking for a year or more before that.  Rather, the point I want  to make is that this bears on what someone (Bruce?) was saying about the benefits of get on with it in terms of the Crowdfund.   There's obviously a lot more interest and awareness of the project than perhaps folks might have assumed....  



Just an observation.   And I tend to think that rolling out the formal Crowdfund might actually be the best measure of market sentiment...  folks voting with their pocket books and all that! 



 

David specifically directed people here from the Facebook group to vote on this poll. 

Yes, these are all people who never bothered to come here before, but on the other hand, the team has not really spent a lot of time pushing the forum over the FB group. This is arguably because FB has a lot more exposure, and so it gets more traffic. However, the better conversations definitely happen here, where you can actually find things. 

 

[Getafix]

1 hour ago, BruceMcF said:

You really need to define "the itch" here. The "itch" here is to have a real live 8bit computer running a real live 8bit CPU. That's what defines the "willing to spend in excess of $200 on it" segment of the market.

I think we can argue over a lot in part because there is no certainty about what's to come but I'll explain what I meant when I wrote this.  Perhaps best explained as a sequence of events that I think will unfold. 



The Commander X8 will become available and people will post their unboxing and experiences.  That will make more people buy it (also, a bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush - the CX16 is in uncertain territory till the finances get settled so may as well get the X8 now).  Then, those of us that have made software for the CX16 will convert our software to run on the CX8, and go on to write more software for it.  Soon, there will be more X8 software than CX16 software.  When the CX16 finally becomes available, will it make financial sense to buy machine that's slower but has more RAM and isn't compatible with all the software now out there? (this all depends on how long it takes to come out, of course).  I think for many the answer would be no.  For some the answer would be yes - those that care about the fact that the machine isn't all FPGA or maybe want to build the kit or can afford both and see value in the CX16.  It will also absolutely sell less than if the X8 doesn't exist (if only by 1 - me) - and this is more true if the CX16 is only in kit form.  Retro computers are loved for their look and feel along with their inner workings.  A kit computer just doesn't have that same identity.



Obviously I made assumptions and as the facts cement it could alter the script but for now I think the CX16 launches later, probably as a kit or maybe as a somewhat expensive ready to go system and the above narrative plays out.



Speaking just for me - If the X8 launches, I'll buy it and be done.  If the X8 doesn't launch, and a CX16 ready-to-go launches, I'll try to buy that if I can afford it.  I don't make the distinction between all FPGA and partially FPGA.  It's real, it's hardware and I can make something for it.  It's not a simulator or emulator.  What I make runs exactly the same for all others that have it - unlike on an emulator.  I am not a collector that want's something to display only - I want to use it and share my experiences with others that use it and the X8 will do all of that nicely at a low cost allowing more people in the ecosystem and that works for me.

[Snickers11001001]

20 minutes ago, TomXP411 said:

avid specifically directed people here from the Facebook group to vote on this poll. 

Ah, make sense.    My first reaction was "oh, this must have gotten on slashdot!"  

(Yes, I'm old and out of touch)

[Vic65]

Very keen to get the Phase 1 X16 any way I can.

Kit with keyboard and no case (so long as it fits a mini ATX case) sounds good to me. 

[zapposh]

10 hours ago, xcv330 said:

I am coming late to this, from the facebook group, but I wanted to say for whatever its worth, the X8 sounds exactly like what I was hoping for when this project first began. I think if the price point is low enough, this really would be useful for teaching as well. If it sells in numbers you can get a much broader base of people wanting to develop for it.



Someone mentioned slowing it down so that it would not be faster than the X16. That strikes me as a terrible idea that's been tried before.

I totally agree!

For either X8 or X16 to thrive, they need to be largely accessible.

Just a glimpse at the "Introductions" thread shows that there is global interest, with many people also signing up from Europe and Australia. Importing heavy and bulky hardware from the US to the EU can easily double to almost tripple the initial cost, as we pay import taxes on the total price including taxes and shipping (which is currently going through the roof worldwide).

So getting a phase 1 X16 in a case, with a heavy power supply, manuals and etc would sadly not have been accessible or made sense for many people outside of the US. 

The X16 DIY kit will bring many more people on board and make it way more affordable.

The X8 now brings a whole new perspective to the project. A light, cheap board, mostly accessible for anyone, anywhere in the world. 

This will lead to a larger user base, more software and games etc. Those who want to, can later on port their projects to the X16.

 

The fact that many here are worried that the X8 is "too good" compared to its big brother is actually reason enough to release it, and a testimony in disguise to its potential.

Most users who want to tinker with a phase 1 X16 are likely to get one regardless, when it's released.

[Radfoo]

It sounds like the decisions have been made already. I can understand the procrastinating but think just need to get on with it, I am ready to buy an x8 and I expect thousands of others will too.

 

As someone else suggested, I think the x8 should be 8mhz by default, with 12mhz being a turbo mode you can enable. Seems to make more sense to me if the x16 happens alongside.  Most would then code for the 8mhz and should be plenty for this kind of computer, but if you need a specific use case then they can bump to the 12mhz.

 

 

[Shauny]

The X16 turned out to be an odd abomination, with it's mix of fpga and old ICs, certainly not a computer built from off the shelf parts originally envisaged. The X8 is not what was originally envisaged either, it's just fpga, a poor relation to the likes of the Mega 65 or the Sinclair Next and the Raspberry Pi4. 

What's worse is it could be seen as a poor attempt to clone the C64 mini.

Seems madness that there is no crowdfunding at this stage,  I think they would get the funds they need no problem. Which makes me wonder why not then? Maybe it's the company structure, or is there in-fighting over who owns what, who is owed money and how much.